Brian White

Canadian Manufacturing Sales - July 19, 2017

A further sign of momentum in the Canadian economy this morning as Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.1 per cent in May, the third consecutive monthly increase.  Overall, sales were higher in 16 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors, reflecting broad-based strength in the Canadian economy.  Continued strong economic data will likely push the Bank of Canada closer to a second rate increase this fall.
 
In BC, manufacturing sales increased 1.8 per cent on a monthly basis and were up 8.2 per cent year-over-year. A strong manufacturing and trade sector has been a key contributor to economic growth in the province this year, which is on track to record a fourth consecutive year of 3 per cent or more growth in real GDP, the best performance for the provincial economy since 2007. 

After years of slow growth across Canada, it floors me that the Bank of Canada will increase to bank rate after a very modest economic increase. They want to slow down the economy that is just getting started after nearly 10 years of static growth. Makes no sense to me.

If you have a real estate related question, feel free to reach out. I'm here to help.

SOUTH OF THE FRASER - While overall market activity slowed slightly in June, apartment sales reached record-breaking levels at 683 transactions for the month.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board processed 2,571 sales of all property types on its Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, a decrease of 10.2 per cent compared to the 2,864 sales in June of last year, and a 5 per cent decrease compared to the 2,707 sales in May 2017.

At 683 sales, apartment transactions represented 27 per cent of all sales activity in the Fraser Valley in June, increasing 13.1 per cent compared to apartment sales in June 2016 and 12.2 per cent compared to May 2017. The average number of days to sell an apartment in June was 15 days, compared to 32 at this time last year.

"We knew that there was a growing appetite for our attached properties, but this month was exceptional," said Gopal Sahota, Board President. “I think one reason demand has continued to be so strong for our region is that we have such diverse, robust inventory to help buyers find the right home even in a more complex market like this one.”

Last month the total active inventory for the Fraser Valley was 5,487 listings. Active inventory decreased by 2.2 per cent year-over-year, and increased 5.5 per cent when compared to May 2017.

The Board received 3,707 new listings in June, a 0.1 per cent increase from June 2016, and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to May 2017’s 3,712 new listings.

Sahota added, "More and more buyers are looking for affordable entry points in to the Fraser Valley. No matter what you’re trying to sell – from townhomes to ranchers – if it’s priced right, someone will be knocking on your door.”

For the Fraser Valley region, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in June 2017 was 21 days, compared to 17 days in June 2016.

HPI® Benchmark Price Activity

• Single Family Detached: At $934,600, the Benchmark price for a single family detached home in the Valley increased 2.1 per cent compared to May 2017, and increased 8.5 per cent compared to June 2016.

• Townhomes: At $467,000 the Benchmark price for a townhome in the Fraser Valley increased 1.8 per cent compared to May 2017, and increased 20.6 per cent compared to June 2016.

• Apartments: At $325,300, the Benchmark price for apartments/condos in the Fraser Valley increased 10.3 per cent compared to May 2017, and increased 40.3 per cent compared to June 2016.

BCREA 2017 Second Quarter Housing Forecast

Vancouver, BC – June 19, 2017.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2017 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 10 per cent to 101,000 units this year, after reaching a record 112,209 units in 2016. Housing demand gained strength this spring, as some of the effects of federal and provincial policy efforts to tamp it down dissipate. In addition, strong market fundamentals continue to underpin an elevated level of home sales. The ten-year average for MLS residential sales in the province is 84,700 units.

“The province is in its fourth year of above-trend economic growth," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "Strong employment growth, consumer confidence and an influx of inter-provincial migrants are important drivers of the housing market this year." In addition, with the millennial generation now entering their household forming years, the condominium market in major urban centres is experiencing pressure on supply.

The average MLS® residential price in the province is forecast to decline 1.1 per cent to $683,500 this year, and increase 5.2 per cent to $719,100 in 2018. The decline in the provincial average price is largely due to rising demand for more affordable condominiums and a larger proportion of home sales occurring outside the Metro Vancouver region.

The prices are a reflection in the supply of homes for sale, that supply is at a 20-year low in the province, with sellers' market conditions prevelant across most BC regions and home types.

This coming October I  will be celebrating 27 years in real estate with even more years in construction practises. Looking for a new home or investment property? I will get the home or property you really want. My clients have called me innovative, insightful, diligent and direct. All of my clients enjoy my knowledge base, an advantage they won’t get from anyone else in the industry. I treat my clients like family, so they are well informed and comfortable moving forward, and are assured complete confidence tthat hey have made the right decision in their investment.

I'm never too busy for any of your referrals.

Your Realtor for Life

Brian

Vancouver, BC – June 13, 2017. TheBritish Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 12,402 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, down 7.9 per cent from the same period last year. Total sales dollar volume was $9.33 billion, down 4.0 per cent from May 2017.

The average MLS® residential price in the province was $752,536, a 4.2 per cent increase from the same period last year.

“Market conditions have tightened considerably this spring as an upturn in consumer demand has not been accompanied by a rise in homes listed for sale," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "The supply of homes for sale in the province has fallen 50 per cent over the past five years."

"The entire southern portion of the province is experiencing a shortage of housing supply, which makes continuing upward pressure on home prices inevitable, at least in the near term," added Muir. Total active listings in the province were down 11.1 per cent to 28,404 units from May 2016. The ratio of home sales to active listings was well over 20 per cent in nine of the province's 11 real estate boards, and over 50 per cent in Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Chilliwack and Victoria.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 25.2 per cent to $30.6 billion, when compared with the same period in 2016. Residential unit sales declined 20.1 per cent to 43,158 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 5.7 per cent to $709,541.

This coming October I  will be celebrating 27 years in real estate with even more years in construction practises. Looking for a new home or investment property? I will get the home or property you really want. My clients call me innovative, insightful, diligent and direct. All of my clients enjoy my competitive knowledge base an advantage they won’t get from anyone else in the industry. I treat my clients like family, so they are comfortable moving forward, and have complete confidence they have made the right decision in their investment.

I'm never too busy for any of your referrals.

Your Realtor for Life

Brian

VANCOUVER, BC – June 2, 2017 – Home buyer activity returned to near record levels across
the Metro Vancouver* housing market in May.

Residential property sales in the region totalled 4,364 in May 2017, a decrease of 8.5 per cent
from the 4,769 sales in May 2016, an all-time record, and an increase of 22.8 per cent compared
to April 2017 when 3,553 homes sold.
Last month’s sales were 23.7 per cent above the 10-year May sales average and is the thirdhighest
selling May on record.

"Demand for condominiums and townhomes is driving today’s activity," Jill Oudil, Real Estate
Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) president said. “First-time buyers and people looking to
downsize from their single-family homes are both competing for these two types of housing.”
New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Metro Vancouver totalled 6,044
in May 2017. This represents a 3.9 per cent decrease compared to the 6,289 units listed in May
2016 and a 23.2 per cent increase compared to April 2017 when 4,907 homes were listed.
The month-over-month increase in new listings was led by detached homes at 27.1 per cent,
followed by apartments at 22.7 per cent and townhomes at 14.1 per cent.
The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver
is 8,168, a 5.7 per cent increase compared to May 2016 (7,726) and a 4.5 per cent increase
compared to April 2017 (7,813).

"Home buyers are beginning to have more selection to choose from in the detached market,
but the number of condominiums for sale continues to decline," Oudil said.
The sales-to-active listings ratio across all residential categories is 53.4 per cent. By property
type, the ratio is 31 per cent for detached homes, 76.1 per cent for townhomes, and 94.6 per cent
for condominiums.

Generally, analysts say that downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below
the 12 per cent mark for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure
when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.
“While sales are inching closer to the record-breaking pace of 2016, the market itself looks
different. Sales last year were driven by demand for single-family homes. This year, it's clear
that townhomes and condominiums are leading the way,” said Oudil. “It’s important to work
with your local REALTOR® to understand the different factors affecting the market today.”
The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro
Vancouver is currently $967,500. This represents an 8.8 per cent increase over May 2016 and a
2.8 per cent increase compared to April 2017.

Sales of detached properties in May 2017 reached 1,548, a decrease of 17 per cent from the
1,865 detached sales recorded in May 2016. The benchmark price for a detached property is
$1,561,000. This represents a 3.1 per cent increase over May 2016 and a 2.9 per cent increase
compared to April 2017.

Sales of apartment properties reached 2,025 in May 2017, a decrease of 5.8 per cent compared to
the 2,150 sales in May 2016.The benchmark price for an apartment property is $571,300. This
represents a 17.8 per cent increase over May 2016 and a 3.1 per cent increase compared to April
2017.

Attached property sales in May 2017 totalled 791, an increase of 4.9 per cent compared to the
754 sales in May 2016. The benchmark price for an attached property is $715,400. This
represents a 13.1 per cent increase over May 2016 and a 1.9 per cent increase compared to April
2017.

For more information on what is happening in your area or a market valuation of your property within 24 hours visit www.brianwhite.ca.

Housing Starts - May 8, 2017

Canadian housing starts declined to 214,098 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in April following a surge in new home construction in March that saw a pace of over 250,000 units SAAR.  The six-month trend in Canadian housing starts continues to trend higher at about 214,000 units SAAR.

In BC, total housing starts were 44,604 units SAAR, a 1 per cent dip from the previous month and 1 per cent higher compared to April 2016.  Single detached starts declined 9 per cent month-over-month but were 16 per cent higher year-over-year. Multiple unit starts increased 2 per cent month-over-month and were down 3 per cent year-over-year.

Looking at census metropolitan areas (CMA) in BC: 

• Total starts in the Vancouver CMA were flat month-over-month and down 7 per cent year-over-year with declines posted in both single and multiple units starts. 

• In the supply constrained Victoria CMA market, housing starts jumped 25 per cent from March as new multiple unit projects broke ground. However new home construction was well off the pace set in 2016 with total starts down 26 per cent year-over-year . 

• New home construction in the Kelowna CMA dropped 24 per cent on a month-over-month basis after a strong March. However, year-over-year, total housing starts were four times higher than April 2016.

• Housing starts in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were down 26 per cent from March but were up close to 60 per cent compared to April 2016 due to a stronger pace of multiple unit starts.

Here in is one of the pricing issues we have in Metro Vancouver, Supply & Demand. Cities and Muncipalities need to streamline the months of nit picking design requirements and red tape into weeks. Some developments take years when it should take less than six months to approve any development.Typically it takes 3 years from shovel in the ground to occupency for a concrete tower, 2 years for a wood frame condo building and nearly the same for row or townhomes.

Cities and Muncipalities need to free up their land stock with long term lease agreements with developers to build rental and more affordable price point housing options.