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Canadian Monthly GDP (July 2017) - September 29, 2017
Growth in the Canadian economy was essentially flat in July following 8 consecutive months of growth. Only 11 of 20 industrial sub-sectors posted positive growth with output in key industries like mining, oil and gas and manufacturing declining. Given today's release, third quarter growth in the Canadian economy is tracking at about 2.5 per cent - a deceleration from the nearly 4 per cent growth in the first half of 2017.
The Bank of Canada has been emphatic that future rate adjustments will be highly data dependent. Slower growth in the third quarter likely means the Bank will hold off on increasing rates at its October meeting. However, beyond that meeting, as long as the Canadian economy is growing well above trend, which the Bank sees as a signal of rising future inflation, we expect further rate increases to come either by the end of this year or in early 2018.
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Canadian Inflation and Retail Sales - September 22, 2017
Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), registered 1.4 per cent in the 12 months to August. That is a slight uptick from 1.2 per cent in July. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation were also up slightly, averaging 1.5 per cent. In BC, provincial consumer price inflation was 2.0 per cent in the 12 months to August.
Canadian retail sales increased 0.4 per cent on a monthly basis in July and were 7.8 per cent higher year-over-year. Sales were higher in 6 of 11 retail sub-sectors with the main contribution coming from motor vehicle dealers and food and beverage stores. In BC, vigorous consumer spending continues to set the pace for the BC economy. Retail sales in the province climbed 0.7 per cent on a monthly basis and were up 12.3 per cent year-over-year.
Despite rapid economic growth in Canada, there is still very little sign of inflation. With inflation reading well below the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target once again in August, the case for a further rate increase in October is lessened though not completely closed.
Thinking of buying or selling? This October I am celebrating 26 years in the real estate & construction industry. My clients call me innovative, insightful, diligent and direct. All of my clients enjoy my competitive knowledge base, an advantage they won’t get from most agents. I treat my clients like family, so they are comfortable moving forward, and when the time comes they have complete confidence that they have made the right decision.
Canadian Manufacturing Sales - September 19, 2017
Canadian manufacturing sales declined for a second consecutive month, falling 2.6 per cent in July. The dip in sales was largely due the motor vehicle and parts sector while sales were up in 12 of 21 manufacturing sub-sectors.
In BC, manufacturing sales decreased 1.6 per cent on a monthly basis but were up 7 per cent year-over-year. Year-to-date, BC manufacturing sales are up close to 8 per cent over 2016, led by strong contributions from a diverse range of industries from wood and paper products to food manufacturing to machinery and equipment. A strong trade and manufacturing sector is helping to propel employment and economic growth around the province, which further supports robust housing demand in BC.
Vancouver, BC – September 6, 2016.
The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) posted its largest increase since 2009, rising by 3.7 index points in the second quarter of 2017 to 133.1. That increase represents a 2.8 per cent rise over the first quarter and a 6.6 per cent increase from one year ago.
“The sustained rise in the CLI reflects strong growth in sectors of the economy beneficial to commercial real estate activity," says BCREA Economist Brendon Ogmundson. "An uptick in economic activity last quarter further reinforces the already strong trend in the CLI and points to continued growth for commercial real estate."
The underlying CLI trend, which smooths often noisy economic data, continues to push higher due to strong provincial economic and employment growth. That uptrend signals further growth in investment, leasing and other commercial real estate activity over the next two to four quarters.