Brian White

Canadian Employment - October 9, 2015

Canadian employment increased rose by 12,000 jobs in September, matching the rate of job creation in August. The national unemployment rate ticked higher by 0.1 points to 7.1 per cent as more people actively searched for work. Part-time employment accounted for all of September's gains while full-time work declined.  In spite of the decline in full-time employment, total hours worked, which is strongly correlated with economic growth, increased by a relatively strong 1.1 per cent compared to September 2014.  

In BC, a strong economy has lead to an increased rate of job creation. The province added 12,400 new jobs in September, including 10,600 full-time positions.  The provincial unemployment rate rose 0.3 points to 6.3 per cent as BC's economic performance has attracted new entrants to the labour force from both inside and outside of the province. Year-to-date, employment in BC is up just 0.8 per cent but has risen at a rate of 1.7  per cent over the past three months. For more informationon on housing or market conditions, please contact me anytime.   

Have a safe long weekend.

BW

Canadian Building Permits - October 7, 2015

The total value of Canadian building permits decreased 3.7 per cent on a monthly basis in August, after rising for most of the summer.  Weakness in permit activity was largely attributable to declining construction intentions in Alberta, Quebec, Saskatchewan and BC. 

After leading the country in permit activity in July, the volume of construction permits in BC fell 21 per cent in August. However, the total value of permits exceeded $1 billion for a third consecutive month and was up 35.5 per cent compared to August 2014. Non-residential permits were up 6 per cent on a monthly basis and close to 80 per cent year-over-year, while residential permits tumbled almost 30 per cent from July but were up 22 per cent year-over-year. 

Construction intentions were relatively mixed in BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were up 42 per cent on a monthly basis and more than doubled levels recorded in August 2014.  In the Kelowna CMA, permits fell 35 per cent from July and were 16 per cent lower year-over-year. In the Vancouver CMA, permits fell 26 per cent on a monthly basis but were 52 higher per cent year-over-year.  In the Victoria CMA, permit activity was down 29 per cent on a monthly basis, but was up 14.5 per cent year-over-year. 

For more information, please contact me anytime.

Data indicating how much of Canada’s real estate is being snatched up by foreign buyers is scant, but the country’s national housing agency is working to change that.

Canada’s national housing agency will be taking the initiative to bolster data on foreign buyers of Canadian real estate, according to an internal memo obtained by The Canadian Press.

In a briefing note dated May 15, 2015, obtained by through an Access to Information request, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., says it will be hosting “bi-lateral meetings” and roundtables with industry stakeholders to fill a number of data gaps, including the share of new and existing homes owned by foreigners.

“Currently there is no perfect source of information on the level of foreign investment in the housing market,” chief economist Bob Dugan said in a statement.

“CMHC has undertaken steps to address this data gap. As a result, we know a lot more about it today than we did a year ago and are continuing our program of work to determine the level of foreign investment in Canadian residential real estate.”

The initiative will go beyond the limited data the agency currently gathers, including a survey of property managers indicating how many condo units are owned by people whose permanent residence is outside of Canada.

In the briefing note prepared for Pierre Poilievre, the minister responsible for CMHC, it is suggested that work is already underway at CMHC.

“For high priority data gaps that it cannot address on its own, CMHC has started to engage in discussions with other data providers and organizations,” the document reads.

Other gaps that CMHC intends to address include the total volume of mortgages issued and outstanding, and mortgage data broken out by lender type, characteristics of borrowers, property type and geographic location.

Are you looking to invest in property? If you like, I can get one of the mortgage experts I deal with to tell you exactly how much you can afford to borrow, which is the best mortgage for you or how much they could save you right now if you have an existing mortgage.

Chinese-only signage, including real estate, still prevalent in Richmond despite education blitz.

by John Tenpenny

Locals in Richmond, B.C., are pointing out the lack of municipal action the issue of Chinese-only signs in the community, many of which are real estate-related.

Community activist Karen Starchuck and business consultant Rupert Whiting, say the city is, once again, ignoring the issue.

“I’m frustrated at the lack of leadership from the city. It seems people are doing what they want within whatever bylaws exist, even if those bylaws are not fit for purpose,” Whiting told the Richmond News.

The pair took media to a construction site of a new home, which featured a Chinese-only sign, another example, Starchuk says of the city dragging its feet on education after Richmond city council chose not to implement a more stringent bylaw to make English mandatory on business signs.

“This (house) isn’t going to get sold to a non-Mainland Chinese person. They’re not even trying to sell it to a non-Mainland Chinese person. That, to me, is a problem,” said Whiting.

“They got off easy. They said they were going to address it, and get on it right away, but basically they’ve done nothing,” said Starchuk.

The city maintains that, using auxiliary staff, it spoke to 2,000 businesses to “encourage” English on all signs. It’s also reminding businesses as they apply for business licenses.

City spokesperson Ted Townsend said a new bylaw on clutter is in the works and the process of education is one that takes time.

Townsend said the clutter bylaw, expected to come to council in early 2016, is intended to clear up additional, unregulated signage on street fronts, regardless of language.

“How we will deal with it in the new bylaw is something we are studying as part of drafting the bylaw,” said Townsend. 

The rules around the income from rental units considered in home loan applications submitted to the CMHC are changing.

The agency announced Monday that, from September 28, it will allow 100 per cent of the rental income from a unit to be considered for new loan applications submitted to it for mortgage insurance.

That means that a secondary rentals suite’s income, minus costs including property taxes, will boost the size of the loan that buyers can secure.

Qualifying units must have sustainable income, proven by two years of rental rent payments. These payments will be averaged to assess the unit’s income. Applicants will also need a credit rating of at least 680.

Properties with more than a single rental unit will have slightly different rules and this change is most positive for homeowners with one rental unit. 

Vigorous Housing Demand Unabated in August

Vancouver, BC – September 11, 2015. TheBritish Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,811 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, up 20 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.5 billion, a 32.8 per cent increase in comparison to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $619,881, up 10.6 per cent from August 2014.

“Housing demand continued at an elevated level in August,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “More homes were sold in BC during the first eight months of the year than in the entire 12 months of 2012.” A total of 67,637 residential transactions were recording in 2012, compared to 70,617 year-to-date in August.

“Many BC regions are now exhibiting sellers’ market conditions, with home prices rising well above the overall consumer price index,” added Muir. Eight of the 11 BC real estate boards recorded a higher average home price than a year ago.

The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 35.9 per cent to $44.3 billion, when compared with the same period in 2014. Residential unit sales climbed by 22.4 per cent to 70,617 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 11.1 per cent to $627,008.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision - September 9, 2015

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation continues to evolve in-line with the Bank of Canada's forecast while economic activity continues to be underpinned by solid household spending and strong demand from the US economy. 

With the economy seemingly improving and core inflation still holding firm near the Bank's 2 per cent target, policymakers opted to stay the course and allow recent loosening of monetary policy to work its way through the system.  We expect that growth will pick-up in the second half of the year, helped out by an acceleration of the US economy and stable oil prices.  That should translate to no further action by the Bank of Canada in 2015, though recent volatility in global financial markets could prompt a shift in thinking.  That said, central banks prefer to avoid bringing interest rate close to the so-called zero lower bound. Therefore, in the absence of a major financial or economic shock, the Bank will likely hold rates constant until a healthy and sustainable rate of economic growth resumes. 

Facebook always asks what's on my mind when I log in.  WELL here it is, the people that are selling these Fentanyl laced pills are doing so knowingly. I believe they should be charged with manslaughter, minimum. and the makers of the pills with a charge of first degree murder! There you go, that's what's on my mind at this moment.

Vancouver, BC – August 13, 2015.

TheBritish Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 10,247 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in July, up 20.7 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.2 billion, a 33.9 per cent increase in comparison to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $608,294, an 11 per cent increase since last July.

“Consumer confidence is brimming in the fastest growing economy in the country,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Broad-based consumer demand continues to push BC home sales higher in every region except the more resource dependent northern markets.”

“Tighter market conditions are driving home prices higher as supply struggles to keep up with demand,” added Muir.  The Fraser Valley experienced the strongest average price growth, climbing 13.5 per cent year-over-year to $571,700 on the strength of strong demand in the single-detached market. 

The year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume increased 36.4 per cent to $38.8 billion, when compared with the same period in 2014. Residential unit sales climbed by 22.7 per cent to 61,806 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 11.1 per cent to $628,025.

US Economic Growth (Q2'2015)                                                                                                                         July 30, 2015

US real GDP grew at a modest 2.3 per cent annual rate in the second quarter, led by positive contributions from personal consumption, exports, and government expenditures. Most importantly, the contraction in GDP initially reported for the first quarter was revised away, with GDP now estimated to have grown 0.6 per cent.   

Improved US economic growth will help the Canadian economy regain its footing in the second half of the year, but may also prompt the US Federal Reserve to begin tightening monetary policy as early as September. If so, we could see Canadian long-term interest rates, and therefore longer-term mortgage rates, dragged higher in spite of recent action by the Bank of Canada.

It may be a good time to get off the fence and lock in that purchase that you have been looking for whether you are moving up, down or buying some recreational property for the family as a long term investment.

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

- July 15, 2015

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by 0.25 percentage points to 0.5 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank emphasized that while this additional stimulus is required to help return the economy to full capacity given a contraction of GDP over the first half of the year, vulnerabilities associated with household imbalances could edge higher.

Although core inflation remains close to the Bank's 2 per cent target, growth in the Canadian economy has stagnated. Today's rate cut should help to partially offset the negative impacts of low energy prices in the parts of Canada hardest hit by the dramatic decline in oil prices and oil and gas activity while providing further stimulus to regions like British Columbia that are enjoying more robust growth. 

For housing, the impact in markets like Vancouver or the Fraser Valley that are already experiencing very strong demand may be relatively muted.  For other markets that been more negatively affected by low energy prices, including some areas of Northern BC,  this may help spur housing demand. 

So if you have been sitting on the fence this may be the time to step off and get into the market.

Have you been dreaming about finding a new home but can't figure out why it's not happening?

Are you making excuses over and over why you are still sitting in the same place?

It's not the right time! It's not the right place! There are no good houses or lots left! How's that mindset working for you? What are you doing to make that new home dream come true? 

First off, how much do you really want it?  Unlike trivial objects, wanting  a great home and neighbourhood versus just needing some different space is very good place to start. 

Here are a few basic steps to get you moving in the right direction: 

1. Make the decision, "I want to find a great home and am committed to make it happen"! 

2. Believe in Yourself, "I am ready for a new home and would be a great neighbour"! 

3. View properties in person, not on social media!  Put on your 'open mind' hat and make sure you are putting your best foot forward. (emotionally and financially).

4. Keep an open mind! What looks good on paper does not necessarily look good in person, an unassuming house may surprise you if you give it a chance!  

5. Be positive about yourself, your needs your wants in general, look for the positive and you will find it. (Note: if you are looking for the negative you will find that too!)

I know this all sounds straight forward but you would be surprised how many people overlook these very simple steps while they are busy making excuses.

Now get out there and find that perfect place and if you need a little help, call me! 

Matching homes and owners since 1990 - Brian White 604-961-4104

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - May 27, 2015

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 0.75 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that inflation in Canada continues to evolve as forecast with core inflation boosted by a lower dollar while CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank's 1-3 per cent control range due to the transitory effects of lower energy prices. The Bank sees the underlying trend of inflation at 1.6 to 1.8 per cent, which is consistent with persistent slack in the economy. The Bank's outlook for economic growth remains largely unchanged from its previous forecast with expectation of a solid recovery beginning in the second quarter. 

With oil prices stabilizing and core inflation firming around its 2 per cent target, a further loosening of monetary policy is becoming more unlikely. If growth recovers as the Bank forecasts over the next couple of quarters, attention will shift once again to the timing of future rate increases. While we do not expect the Bank to act on interest rates for the remainder of the year, long-term bond yields and therefore mortgage rates are likely to rise from their current lows as growth improves and the US Federal Reserve begins raising its own target rate later this year. 

If you are looking to make a move in housing or investing in rental properties now is a very good time. Get in, lock in watch your money grow. Contact me anytime for a market update in your area.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,952 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May, up 28.7 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $6.3 billion, a 45.5 per cent increase in comparison to the previous year. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $634,744, a 13 per cent increase since last May.

“Last month was the strongest April for home sales in a decade,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The elevated level of buying activity this spring is now expected to push 2015 home sales to their highest level since 2007.”

“Consumers are taking full advantage of rock bottom interest rates and are demonstrating significant confidence in the housing market,” added Muir. “However, dwindling inventories combined with competition for detached homes in the province`s large urban markets is pushing home prices higher.”

During the first four months of 2015, BC residential sales dollar volume rose 37.1 per cent to $19 billion, when compared with the same period in 2014. Residential unit sales increased by 24.5 per cent to 30,091 units, while the average MLS® residential price rose 10.1 per cent to $631,860.

If you want to know what your home is worth in today's market, call or email me to arrange an appointment.

Vancouver, BC – April 16, 2015.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,101 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in March, up 37.6 per cent from the same month last year. Total sales dollar volume was $5.8 billion, an increase of 57.1 per cent compared to a year ago. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $641,799, up 14.1 per cent from the same month last year.

"BC home sales climbed significantly in March," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "More homes traded hands last month than any March since 2007. On a seasonally adjusted basis, March posted the most home sales of any month since December of 2009."

"Rock bottom interest rates and rising consumer confidence have strengthened housing markets in most regions of the province, added Muir. "Many board areas are now exhibiting sellers' market conditions with home prices advancing well above the overall rate of inflation."

During the first quarter, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 33.2 per cent to $12.7 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were up 22.5 per cent to 20,139 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 8.7 per cent at $630,435.

In March, sales on the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) reached the highest they’ve been in nine years. The Board processed 1,857 sales, a 47 per cent increase compared to the 1,259 sales in March of last year. Sales during March of 2006 were 2,072.

Jorda Maisey, President of the Board, attributes the strength in the market to a number of factors. “Our population is growing, interest rates continue to remain supportive of housing demand and consumers are confident. It all adds up to a desire to invest in real estate now.”

In March, the Board processed 11 per cent more new listings compared to March 2014, however higher sales eroded the number of active listings. March finished with 8,193 active listings of all property types, 7 per cent fewer than available during the same month last year.

Maisey adds, “It’s important to emphasize that supply and demand vary depending on property type and location. Currently, demand for single family detached homes is outpacing supply in most Fraser Valley communities resulting in lower inventory levels, upward pressure on prices and homes selling faster than they did last year.

“For buyers looking for a detached home or in certain areas a townhome, your REALTOR® will advise that selection is limited, you will have less time to make decisions and their ability to negotiate a lower price for you is diminished. This is not the case if you’re looking to invest in an apartment or an acreage property where the market continues to favour buyers.”

The MLS® HPI benchmark price of a Fraser Valley single family detached home in March was $588,500, an increase of 4.5 per cent compared to March 2014 when it was $563,400.

In March, the benchmark price of townhouses was $299,700, an increase of 0.9 per cent compared to $297,100 in March 2014. The benchmark price of apartments decreased year-over-year by 2.4 per cent, going from $195,400 in March 2014 to $190,800 in March 2015.

In March, the average number of days to sell a single family detached home in the Fraser Valley was 38 days, down from 44 days in 2014. Townhomes took 48 days on average to sell, while apartments took 61 days, both comparable with March of last year.

The Bank of Canada announced this morning that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 0.75 per cent. In the press release accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that total CPI inflation has fallen as expected given the significant drop in oil prices, but core inflation has been temporarily boosted by a lower Canadian dollar. Regarding economic growth, the Bank expects the negative impact of lower oil prices to appear in the first half of 2015 before the economy recovers in the second half of the year. Overall, the Bank judges risks to its inflation outlook as balanced and considers the current degree of monetary policy stimulus appropriate.

Stable oil prices and core inflation still trending above the Bank's 2 per cent target seems to have persuaded policymakers that the "insurance" purchased with January's surprise interest rate cut is enough for now. That said, the ultimate impact of lower oil prices has yet to be fully realized and we expect monetary policy to be highly data dependent in coming months. If the Canadian economy experiences significant labour weakness or core inflation starts to trend lower, the Bank may opt to reduce rates at its next meeting in April or possibly early in summer. 

2015 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – February 11, 2015.

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2015 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

"Stronger economic conditions both at home and abroad combined with favourable interest rates and population growth are expected to bolster housing demand over the next two years,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “After a year in which housing demand ratcheted higher across the province, the retrenchment of oil prices is expected to attenuate housing demand in some regions while bolstering it in others."

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in British Columbia are forecast to rise 2.4 per cent to 86,050 units this year and a further 3.9 per cent to 89,400 units in 2016. The ten-year average is 82,100 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.  

The average MLS® residential sales price is forecast to rise 4.5 per cent to $594,000 this year, with most of the upward pressure being exhibited on the South Coast. Elevated consumer demand is expected to be partially offset by resale inventories and additions to the housing stock in 2016.

As a result, the average MLS® residential sales price is forecast to increase by 2.4 per cent to $608,500 next year. So now is the time to be looking at moving up or down depending on your familiy's needs.

Call me anytime, Im here to help.

Canadian and US Economic Growth - January 30, 2015

The Canadian economy contracted 0.2 per cent in November. Falling energy prices resulted in declining output in the oil and gas sector, while manufacturing and mining production was also lower. Given available data, the Canadian economy likely expanded 1.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014, and about 2.4 per cent for the year as a whole. While export growth will be helped this year by a significant fall in the loonie, we expect growth will decelerate slightly in 2015 to about 2.2 per cent as low oil prices drag investment and employment lower. 

Uncertainty around the impact of the dramatic decline in oil has most market watchers expecting a further loosening of policy by the Bank of Canada, with a second rate cut coming in March.  Whether that comes to fruition likely depends on where the trend in oil is over the next month. If prices continue to fall, we expect the Bank will opt for more "insurance" by reducing its overnight rate to 0.5 per cent. However, if oil prices firm up and core inflation remains above 2 per cent, the Bank may opt to hold steady.

In the United States, real GDP grew at a healthy 2.6 per cent annual rate in the fourth quarter, following 5 per cent growth in the third quarter.  Growth was led higher by the strongest rate of consumer spending since 2006.  Note that today's report is the preliminary release and will be revised, perhaps substantially in coming months. Given that growth was actually tracking closer to 3.5 per cent for the quarter, we expect fourth quarter GDP will be revised higher with subsequent releases. 

For more information, please feel free to contact me anytime 1.604.961.4104