Brian White

Canadian Building Permits - May 5, 2016

The total value of Canadian building permits declined 7 per cent on a monthly basis in March following a 15 per cent increase in February. The drop in permits was the result of lower permit activity in the commercial sector in Alberta, Ontario and BC. 

In BC, total permit activity declined 5 per cent from February to March but remained above $1 billion for the fifth consecutive month. On a year-over-year basis, the dollar value of building permits in the province was 10 per cent lower than March 2015. Non-residential permits accounted for all of the decline, falling 33 per cent on a monthly basis and 37 per cent year-over-year. Residential permits rose 8 per cent on a monthly basis and were up 2.6 per cent year-over-year. 

Construction intentions were mixed in BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were up 31.5 cent on a monthly basis and 11 per cent higher year-over-year.  In the Kelowna CMA, permits fell 16 per cent from February and were 34 per cent lower year-over-year. In the Vancouver CMA, permits increased 6 per cent on a monthly basis and were down 12 per cent year-over-year.  In the Victoria CMA, permit activity was down 29 per cent on a monthly basis but was up 41 per cent compared to March 2015.

If you ave any questions or need more information, email me or let's meet for a coffee.

Brian 

April 28, 2016

US real GDP growth registered a disappointing 0.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, the slowest quarterly growth in two years. Growth was pulled lower by a softening of consumer spending as well as the high US dollar's impact on exports. It should be noted that today's release is a preliminary estimate and is subject to revisions which can be substantial. 

As noted yesterday afternoon by the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee in its decision to leave its target interest rate unchanged, the US faces some headwinds from a struggling global economy but consumer demand is expected to accelerate, buoyed by strong gains in the labour market.  We expect that the US economy will get back on track in subsequent quarters, ultimately expanding 2.2 per cent in 2016. Low growth and modest inflationary pressure should keep the Federal Reserve sidelined most of this year, though one more rate-hike before the end of the year remains likely.