Brian White

Canadian Monthly GDP Growth (August 2015) - October 30, 2015

The Canadian economy expanded 0.1 per cent in August, following 0.3 per cent growth in July. Growth in real GDP, as measured at the industry level, was led by gains in the manufacturing, mining and oil and gas sectors while retail trade and the finance sector were a drag on growth. 

The Canadian economy has posted three consecutive months of economic growth, putting worries of a deepening energy sector driven recession to rest. Third quarter real GDP growth is currently tracking at a relatively strong pace, likely in a range of 2.6 to 3 per cent. 

Canadian Retail Sales - October 22, 2015

Canadian retail sales rose for a fourth consecutive month, increasing 0.5 per cent in August. On a year-over-year basis, sales were up 2.8 per cent. However, sales were higher in only 4 of 11 retail sub-sectors with strong sales of motor vehicles continuing to account for a large share of gains.  Stripping out sales of motor vehicles, retail sales were essentially flat.  In BC, retail sales were up 1.4 per cent on a monthly basis and 7 per cent compared to August 2014. Year-to-date, retail sales in the province are up 7.2 per cent over last year. 

Given today's data release, Canadian real GDP is currently tracking at between 2.5 and 3 per cent in the third quarter, a significant bounce-back following two quarters of modest decline in the economy. 

Time will tell in the coming months what the change in Goverment will mean to the economy moving forward. 

Canadian Employment - October 9, 2015

Canadian employment increased rose by 12,000 jobs in September, matching the rate of job creation in August. The national unemployment rate ticked higher by 0.1 points to 7.1 per cent as more people actively searched for work. Part-time employment accounted for all of September's gains while full-time work declined.  In spite of the decline in full-time employment, total hours worked, which is strongly correlated with economic growth, increased by a relatively strong 1.1 per cent compared to September 2014.  

In BC, a strong economy has lead to an increased rate of job creation. The province added 12,400 new jobs in September, including 10,600 full-time positions.  The provincial unemployment rate rose 0.3 points to 6.3 per cent as BC's economic performance has attracted new entrants to the labour force from both inside and outside of the province. Year-to-date, employment in BC is up just 0.8 per cent but has risen at a rate of 1.7  per cent over the past three months. For more informationon on housing or market conditions, please contact me anytime.   

Have a safe long weekend.

BW

Canadian Building Permits - October 7, 2015

The total value of Canadian building permits decreased 3.7 per cent on a monthly basis in August, after rising for most of the summer.  Weakness in permit activity was largely attributable to declining construction intentions in Alberta, Quebec, Saskatchewan and BC. 

After leading the country in permit activity in July, the volume of construction permits in BC fell 21 per cent in August. However, the total value of permits exceeded $1 billion for a third consecutive month and was up 35.5 per cent compared to August 2014. Non-residential permits were up 6 per cent on a monthly basis and close to 80 per cent year-over-year, while residential permits tumbled almost 30 per cent from July but were up 22 per cent year-over-year. 

Construction intentions were relatively mixed in BC's four census metropolitan areas (CMA). Permits in the Abbotsford-Mission CMA were up 42 per cent on a monthly basis and more than doubled levels recorded in August 2014.  In the Kelowna CMA, permits fell 35 per cent from July and were 16 per cent lower year-over-year. In the Vancouver CMA, permits fell 26 per cent on a monthly basis but were 52 higher per cent year-over-year.  In the Victoria CMA, permit activity was down 29 per cent on a monthly basis, but was up 14.5 per cent year-over-year. 

For more information, please contact me anytime.