The sands of B.C. real estate are expected to keep shifting in 2026, with residential woes contrasting with commercial optimism against a backdrop of capital flight and ballooning costs.

One developer in the region says the industry may see a “less-is-more approach” in 2026 with many large-scale projects being put on hold despite new rezonings to add density.

“The path forward in the short term is that homebuilders are going to focus on smaller, bite-sized types of projects,” said Matthew McClenaghan, president of Vancouver-based Edgar Development Ltd.

This could mean townhomes, income-producing properties and alternatives like hotels and senior housing. With less inventory for the market to absorb, B.C. cities need to work with developers to reduce fees, taxes and heavy amenity burdens, he said.

“If you can build homes in Metro Vancouver, you can build homes anywhere in the world,” McClenaghan said.

“We have to navigate some of the most complex building codes, policies, all that stuff. Not to mention, there’s over 20 municipalities that all have different policies and procedures.”

On the residential side, a correction shows no sign of letting up. Residential real estate prices in Metro Vancouver are expected to decline over the next year, according to a new internal survey by Royal LePage.

The Dec. 9 report said the median detached home price is expected to drop five per cent from $1,695,700 in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $1,610,915 in the fourth quarter of 2026. The median condo price is expected to decline three per cent over the same period from $734,900 to $712,853.

The company said these forecasts are based on the trend analyses and market knowledge of its experts.

“We’re coming down off of some remarkably high prices,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker with Royal LePage Sterling Realty.

“Toronto and Vancouver are so expensive that there’s probably a little bit more of a correction that can happen here.”

There is a “really good” selection of properties for buyers, and interest rates" are probably as low as they’re going to go,” he said, with activity in the bond market driving longer-term mortgage rates to under four per cent, similar to pre-COVID levels.

Sellers, meanwhile, need to be realistic since pricing from a few years ago may no longer be attainable. Sellers who want to transact within 90 days need to be priced “to be next,” 

The following is true in any market but it will be particularly important in 2026. 'If you’re priced in the middle of the pack, you probably won’t be successful.'

Jami Makan

Western Investor